Aiea, Hawaii 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

893
FXHW60 PHFO 021936
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
936 AM HST Mon Feb 2 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 359 AM HST Mon Feb 2 2026

A cold front will march eastward down the island chain from later
this afternoon onward, finally stalling out and diminishing near
the Big Island by Tuesday afternoon. Southerly to southwesterly
winds will strengthen into the breezy to strong range with higher
gusts through tonight. Northwesterly winds with cool and dry
conditions will follow behind the frontal passage. A stronger
weather system may produce more significant weather impacts across
from late Friday onward with the potential for periods of heavy
rain and thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...
Issued at 930 AM HST Mon Feb 2 2026

For this mid morning Monday update, no major changes were made to
the forecast. The approaching cold front can be seen about 90
miles northwest of Kauai as of 9 AM HST this morning, along with
scattered cumulus and embedded showers streaming up across the
state from the southwest. The main focus for today remains on the
strong southwest flow trapped under a rather robust low level
inversion, bringing strong gusts across the island chain,
particularly for ridge tops and north through east facing areas.
A Wind Advisory is in effect for all lower elevation areas through
tonight. In addition, a High Wind Warning was issued for the Big
Island summits of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa lasting into Wednesday.
See the main discussion below for details.

The front remains on track to arrive at Kauai late this afternoon
or early evening, Oahu this evening, Maui County late tonight and
the Big Island on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 AM HST Mon Feb 2 2026

This mornings infrared satellite imagery over the Central Pacific
basin shows bands of clouds riding into each island in the
southwesterly winds ahead of an approaching cold front roughly 200
miles northwest of Kauai at this hour. Strong and gusty south to
southwest winds will increase to Wind Advisory levels across all
Hawaiian Island today with wind gusts up to 50 mph possible in
wind favored locations. The strongest wind gusts will favor
mountain ranges and areas north and east of island terrain
features. Surface wind speeds continue to trend upward this
morning with the highest winds already reaching the 20 to 30 MPH
range in some areas with gusts near 40 MPH. A Wind Advisory was
issued this morning to cover these stronger wind threats. Even
stronger winds will blow across the highest summits on the Big
Island, strengthening to warning levels later this afternoon. A
High Wind Warning was issued for the Big Island summits of Mauna
Kea and Mauna Loa lasting into Wednesday. Expect these stronger
winds to decrease below advisory thresholds as weaker
northwesterly winds blow in after the front passes through each
island.

The cold front continues to quickly approach the Hawaiian Islands
from the northwest direction this morning, the front will swiftly
march eastward down the island chain through Tuesday. The highest
rainfall amounts will develop over a four to six hour time period
along the main frontal cloud band as it passes through each
island. Based on all available data, the front will move into
Niihau and Kauai around noon, reaching Oahu by mid afternoon, then
onward to Molokai and Lanai in the evening hours, into Maui
around midnight, and finally the remnants of the frontal band with
significantly less shower activity will reach the Big Island on
Tuesday morning. Expect cooler and drier northwesterly winds to
develop after frontal passage. This drier air will keep cooler
overnight to early morning temperatures in the 60`s as the
atmosphere will more efficiently radiate heat into outer space
each night.

Lighter winds return to the region from Tuesday night into
Thursday as a weak high pressure system just north of the state
drifts slowly eastward. Light to moderate southwest winds will
develop from Thursday night into Friday ahead of the next even
stronger cold front approaching Hawaii from the northwest
direction. This next front appears to stall out near Kauai and
Oahu from Saturday night to Sunday, as the cold pool aloft
transforms into a cut off low near the islands.

There remains a tremendous amount of uncertainty on the impacts
with this next cut off low setting up near the islands this
weekend. On one hand, the front stalls out earlier over the
western islands and remains less progressive than what was
forecast just 24 hours ago. This upper low has the potential to
produce periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms with potential for
flood threats to portions of the state from Saturday through
Monday. However, the recent 24 hour trends in the operational and
ensemble models are driving the track of this low farther east
over time. Any significant impacts with this system are highly
dependent upon where the low sets up relative to each island. As
of this moment, we are closely watching this system evolve as the
time period grows shorter for changes in track and intensity. For
now, the latest forecast guidance suggests that the most intense
part of this storm will remain just west of the state; limiting
potential impacts. The best chances for heavy rain and thunderstorms
remains over the western islands of Niihau, Kauai and Oahu this
weekend. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 359 AM HST Mon Feb 2 2026

Breezy and gusty southwesterly winds will affect the islands today
as a cold front approaches from the northwest. In advance of the
front, scattered showers will bring MVFR cigs/vsbys to south and
west facing slopes and coasts at times, while mainly VFR
conditions prevail elsewhere. The front will move into Kauai late
this afternoon, then shift rapidly down the island chain tonight,
nearing the Big Island around daybreak Tuesday. A band of gusty
showers will accompany the front, with MVFR cigs and/or vsbys
affecting many of the TAF sites as the front moves through. Winds
will shift northwesterly at moderate to locally breezy levels
behind the front with conditions improving from northwest to
southeast down the island chain as drier more stable air moves in.

AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration across
portions of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Lanai, and Maui. Conditions will
likely improve in most areas later this morning, but may redevelop
later this afternoon on Kauai.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low level turbulence
over and downwind of the terrain of all islands. This AIRMET will
likely remain in place through late this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 930 AM HST Mon Feb 2 2026

A strong front has entered the far northwest offshore waters and
will move through the state later this afternoon through Tuesday.
A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for all waters due
to increasing southwesterly winds as the front approaches. The
front will swiftly move through Kauai late this afternoon and
evening, with moderate to strong northwesterly winds filling in
behind. The front will weaken, and winds will gradually ease to
moderate to fresh speeds, as it progresses through the eastern
half of the island chain overnight through Tuesday. Winds will
shift out of the east on Wednesday as a weak high quickly moves
from west to east over the state. Light to gentle southerly winds
will return Thursday as another front approaches the state from
the northwest. Southerly winds will gradually strengthen to
moderate to fresh speeds Friday ahead of the next front with
moderate to locally strong northerly winds filling in behind the
front as the front moves southeast over the state Friday into the
weekend.

The current west-northwest swell will continue to decline through
today with surf heights dropping below average. Forerunners of an
extra large northwest swell (310 to 325 degrees) have reached the
offshore buoy 51001 and should trickle in locally through the day,
though buoy 51001 is still showing predominantly wind-generated swell
as of mid-morning. Another moderate, short to medium period northwest
swell overlapping will provide a slight bump in surf along north and
west facing shores this afternoon. Surf heights are expected to
rapidly build along north and west facing shores this evening and peak
Tuesday well above High Surf Warning levels along most north and west
facing shores as the extra large northwest swell builds in.
Overlapping pulses will keep surf elevated through Wednesday before
subsiding below High Surf Advisory levels Thursday night into Friday.
This swell will also push combined seas well above the 10 foot SCA
threshold in many areas. Another extra large swell is possible late
Friday and Saturday.

Rough choppy surf along south facing shores will hold through
today as southerly winds remain strong ahead of the front. Surf along
east facing shores will remain tiny through much of the week due to
lack of strong trades near and upstream of the state. An increase surf
is possible along east shores this weekend.

The Coastal Flood Statement has been extended through Tuesday
morning, as peak monthly tides coincide with much higher than
predicted ocean levels. Expect minor flooding of low-lying coastal
infrastructure as well as some some beach erosion during peak
high tides through the morning hours again early Tuesday.
Thereafter, mean higher high water (MHHW) levels at the daily high
tides are expected to be lower, and the Coastal Flood Statement
will likely be cancelled or allowed to expire.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Big Island East-Big
Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island
Southeast-Central Oahu-East Honolulu-Ewa Plain-Honolulu Metro-
Kahoolawe-Kauai East-Kauai Mountains-Kauai North-Kauai South-
Kauai Southwest-Kipahulu-Kohala-Kona-Koolau Leeward-Koolau
Windward-Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai South-Lanai Windward-
Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward
West-Maui Windward West-Molokai Leeward South-Molokai North-
Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-Niihau-Oahu
North Shore-Olomana-South Haleakala-South Maui/Upcountry-Waianae
Coast-Waianae Mountains-Windward Haleakala.

High Wind Warning until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Big Island
Summits.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Alenuihaha
Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-
Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai
Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-
Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward
Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Bohlin
SHORT TERM UPDATE...Farris
DISCUSSION...Bohlin
AVIATION...Jelsema
MARINE...Almanza/Vaughan